S05E019, Weather Forecasts and Wet Faces Part 1, Andy B 2 Minute Video
We rely on forecasts for so many things. From weather forecasts for planting crops to financial forecasting to know where our finances will be. Forecasting can cost ridiculous amounts of money for the most accurate types.
But, the thing about forecasts is, no matter how expertly they done, they can be utterly and tragically wrong!
We hear ‘the facts about…’, delivered in such a way that we know we shouldn’t question it. But, question it we should!
You see, no matter how good as the computer is - providing whatever forecast we want - it is only as good as the data is given – supplied by humans, and as good as the programming is, supplied by humans.
And we humans are oh so very fallible!
We hear terms like ‘The facts about evolution’ but, at best, it is simply a theory that has never been proven.
We hear terms like ‘The facts about climate change’ and yet, at best, it is impossible to state anything that bold and suggest it is anything more than a theory.
We need to be so careful when we hear about facts – too many have been proven incorrect.
Plus, we can not read the future any better than we can know if it will rain tomorrow or not.
However, there is hope! If you want to know if it is raining, there is a sure fire way to know – stick your head out of a window. If it’s wet, it’s raining. If it’s dry, it isn’t.
As far as predictions go, they’re super useful and I use several of them for all sorts of purposes from financial planning to putting the washing out!
But treat predictions as what they are otherwise referred to…a guess.
Just a thought...
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Weather Forecasts and Wet Faces. What have they got in common? Well, in the UK many, many years ago, and I've shared this a few times, there were some really, really bad storms. And a non professional weather forecaster, from home so to speak, said, 'Oh I'm quite concerned about this. This looks like it could be really, really bad wind'. And, infamously, the weatherman at the time says, 'No, no, no, it's all fine' And we had some of the worst gales in the UK that we've had in history.
Sometimes forecasts don't go the way we planned. Maybe you thik about financial forecasts, 'We know where we're gonna be in 6 months time, that's going to be our bank balance'. And then a bunch of big bills come in, you lose your job, and all of a sudden that forecast is worthless.
Weather forecasts. When you put your rain out, if you're anything like me, you want your, your rain to stay away so you can get your washing dry. You check out a weather radar. Forecasts are good, but I want to see where the rain is. Because, if I know where it is now I know where it's gonna be in half an hour, or an hour, and I can make a fairly good prediction whether it's worthwhile putting the washing out, or not. But the thing is those forecasts go wrong. Wind happens and moves the rain away. Temperatures change, and all this sort of stuff. Atmospheric things happen. And now the rain that was nowhere near has suddenly been pushed you.
We used to live in Cambridge, once upon a time, and we lived in what was known as a bit of a desert because it never rains. You can have heavy, torrential downpours. 100% gonna happen. And then it never rains. That was Cambridge!
Now, if you want to know what's really going on the weather, there's two ways of doing this. You can look at a forecast or perhaps a radar, and you can see what might happen, or what is happening. And the other one, which works fairly more accurately, is to stand outside your house and see if it's wet or not. If you get a wet face, it's raining! Not particularly complicated!! And this is the thing about facts and forecasts.
Facts. 'It's a fact about evolution'. 'It's a fact about climate change'. But theory is still, sorry, evolution is still just a theory that's never been proven after 100 plus years. Climate change. Well, yes, it's changing. But how bad we don't actually know and nobody can actually state that. But it's said as such a fact, that we should never question it. But, actually, we should. Because these facts are theories. And the problem with theories is they're just like forecasts. They can be wrong.
So, let's be really careful when we're hearing facts, and basing our life around things that absolutely are. We need to make sure they are. And how do we do that? Well, we go back to the Bible. We go back to God.
But here's the thing,. Even if the world's about to end, as Christians, we have nothing to fear because we know where we're going.
Just a thought.
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Written by Andy B